Former Sokoto State Governor, Aminu Tambuwal, has stated that the 2027 general elections are more likely to mirror the political dynamics of Nigeria’s 1979 transition elections than the 2023 presidential contest.
Tambuwal, who governed Sokoto State from 2015 to 2023 and served as Speaker of the House of Representatives from 2011 to 2015, made the remarks during an interview on Channels Television’s Politics Today on Friday.
Speaking on the evolving political landscape, Tambuwal said the alliances and electoral realities ahead of 2027 would be significantly different from those that shaped the last general election.
“Politics is dynamic, and virtually everything about people is dynamic. 2027 may not necessarily be a replay of the 2023 elections.
“I’d take you as far back as 1979, when you had President Shehu Shagari, Chief Obafemi Awolowo, Chief Nnamdi Azikiwe, Mallam Aminu Kano and Waziri Ibrahim on the ballot, five of them.
“I see a replay of 1979 in 2027 rather than the 2023 general elections. You wait and see. The dynamics of today are different from the dynamics of 2023,” he stated.
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Opposition
The former governor, who defected from the Peoples Democratic Party for the African Democratic Congress (ADC), said he would not endorse any presidential aspirant under the party until it concludes its primary election.
On recent political defections, Tambuwal said the decisions by opposition figures Peter Obi and Rabiu Kwankwaso to leave the ADC for the NDC were “personal choices” and should not be interpreted as evidence of disunity within the party.
According to him, “No major decision was taken within the ADC without Obi’s input”, and all aspirants would have been given a fair opportunity to contest.
Tambuwal also dismissed suggestions that he is retiring from politics following his withdrawal from the senatorial race, insisting that he remains active and committed to public service.
He said his decision to step aside was motivated by the need for sacrifice and a desire to create greater opportunities for younger Nigerians to participate in politics.
Addressing insecurity, the former governor said the ADC intends to recruit significantly more personnel into the armed forces and the police to strengthen efforts against terrorism and banditry.
He also criticised the administration of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu, arguing that the policies of the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) have worsened the economic conditions of many Nigerians and have failed to deliver the desired results.
Historical Parallels
Tambuwal’s comparison draws on one of the most significant elections in Nigeria’s democratic history.
In the 1979 Nigerian presidential election, Shehu Shagari won 33.77 per cent of the vote ahead of Obafemi Awolowo.
The election led to the landmark “two-thirds of 19 states” legal dispute after Shagari secured the constitutional spread requirement in 12 states and part of the 13th state. The Supreme Court of Nigeria upheld the result.
Similarly, the 2023 Nigerian presidential election generated legal challenges after Tinubu secured 36.61 per cent of the vote, defeating Atiku Abubakar and Peter Obi in a closely contested race.
The Supreme Court later ruled that the Federal Capital Territory does not enjoy a special constitutional status above the states in determining the spread requirement.
As preparations for 2027 gather momentum, opposition figures continue to realign across parties, while President Tinubu is widely expected to seek a second term in office under the APC.
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