From N17.36 trillion to N166.79 trillion in 10 years, Nigeria’s public debt has exploded by 861 per cent. As debt servicing devours government revenue and fresh foreign loans loom, the question is no longer how much Nigeria can borrow, but how much longer the country can afford to keep borrowing.
There is a dangerous price to borrowing without accountability. There is an even greater tragedy in borrowing without visible results. And there is something profoundly unjust about a government spending tomorrow’s money today while millions of its citizens struggle to survive the present.
Nigeria is fast approaching that dangerous territory.
In just 10 years, the country’s public debt has ballooned from N17.36 trillion in 2016 to an astonishing N166.79 trillion as of June 30, 2026. That is an increase of approximately 861 per cent. The estimated debt burden per Nigerian has also climbed from N88,800 to N716,800.
In other words, the country’s debt burden per citizen has multiplied more than eightfold in a decade.
But what exactly has Nigeria gained from this mountain of borrowing?
Where are the world-class hospitals? Where are the modern roads, reliable electricity networks, thriving industries and quality public schools? Where are the millions of jobs and the visible improvements in living standards that should justify such extraordinary financial obligations?
These are questions the Federal Government can no longer afford to dodge.
The figures are staggering. The implications are frightening. And the consequences, if left unchecked, could haunt generations of Nigerians yet unborn.
To be clear, borrowing is not a crime against economic development. Every serious economy borrows. Governments borrow to build infrastructure, expand productive capacity and finance investments that can generate wealth for decades. But responsible borrowing must have a purpose, a measurable return and a credible repayment plan.
What makes borrowing dangerous is not necessarily its size, but the inability to demonstrate what it has achieved.
Nigeria’s problem is becoming increasingly difficult to disguise. The country’s appetite for borrowing appears to be growing much faster than its capacity to generate revenue and repay its obligations.
Consider the alarming trajectory. Public debt stood at N46.25 trillion in 2022. By 2023, it had surged to N97.34 trillion. It rose further to N144.67 trillion in 2024, N159.28 trillion in 2025 and N166.79 trillion by June 2026.
Part of the dramatic 2023 increase reflected the conversion of approximately N22.72 trillion in Central Bank of Nigeria Ways and Means Advances into government securities. Naira depreciation also increased the domestic-currency value of existing foreign debt. These factors must be acknowledged. But they do not erase the fundamental question of Nigeria’s growing debt exposure.
More disturbing is the government’s ability to service this debt.
The 2026 budget provides N15.52 trillion for debt servicing against projected revenue of N34.33 trillion. That means approximately 45 per cent of expected revenue will be committed to servicing debt.
Think about that for a moment: almost half of the Federal Government’s projected earnings will go towards meeting existing debt obligations before other competing demands on public resources are considered.
The International Monetary Fund’s estimate that interest payments alone could consume 53.7 per cent of Federal Government revenue in 2026 makes the situation even more troubling.
This is the heart of Nigeria’s fiscal crisis. The country is accumulating obligations while surrendering an increasingly large portion of its earnings to creditors.
And when debt servicing takes priority, development suffers.
Every naira committed to interest payments is a naira that cannot simultaneously build a hospital, equip a school, improve rural roads or expand access to electricity.
Of course, debt servicing cannot simply be abandoned. Nigeria must honour legitimate financial obligations. But the real tragedy is that the cost of meeting yesterday’s commitments is increasingly competing with the resources needed to build tomorrow’s prosperity.
The consequences are already being felt by ordinary Nigerians.
Families are battling rising food prices. Young people are searching desperately for employment. Businesses are struggling with high operating costs, unreliable electricity and expensive financing. Public hospitals and schools face enormous challenges, while infrastructure deficits continue to undermine economic productivity.
Yet, against this background, the government is contemplating additional external borrowing of $20.52 billion and €1.05 billion for its 2026 and 2027 development plans.
Surely, this demands more than official assurances.
Before Nigeria assumes another enormous foreign-currency obligation, the government must provide convincing answers. What exactly will the loans finance? Which projects have been prioritised? What are the interest rates and repayment periods? What economic returns are expected? And, most importantly, what guarantees exist that the funds will not disappear into the familiar maze of inflated contracts, abandoned projects and questionable expenditure?
Nigerians are entitled to these answers.
They have already endured fuel subsidy removal, exchange-rate reforms, higher living costs and other difficult economic adjustments. They have been told that these sacrifices are necessary to restore the economy and improve government finances.
If revenue is improving and subsidy savings are being realised, why is additional borrowing still becoming such an important part of the government’s financing strategy?
This is not an argument against development spending. It is an argument for transparency, discipline and responsible leadership.
The Federal Government cannot continually ask citizens to tighten their belts while leaving them uncertain about how public money is being spent.
Nor should future generations be condemned to repay loans whose benefits they cannot identify.
There is also a dangerous foreign-exchange dimension to this borrowing binge. Nigeria’s external debt stood at N75.20 trillion as of June 2026, equivalent to $54.52 billion. A further depreciation of the naira could substantially increase the domestic-currency cost of servicing these obligations.
The danger is obvious. Nigeria earns much of its government revenue in naira, but foreign-currency loans must be repaid in foreign currency. When the naira weakens, the repayment burden becomes heavier.
This is how a country can find itself trapped between dwindling fiscal space, mounting external obligations and an increasingly expensive exchange rate.
But perhaps the most disturbing aspect of Nigeria’s debt crisis is the question of accountability.
For too long, public borrowing has generated enormous figures, official explanations and political promises. Yet Nigerians still deserve a comprehensive account of the projects financed by these loans and the economic value they have delivered.
It is not enough to announce that money was borrowed for roads, railways, agriculture, healthcare or education. Government must demonstrate what was built, how much it cost, whether it was completed and what benefits it has generated.
The National Assembly must also rise above routine approval of borrowing requests. Its responsibility is not merely to authorise loans but to protect the public interest through rigorous scrutiny, effective oversight and independent verification of expenditure.
The government should immediately commission a comprehensive audit of major borrowing programmes and publish outstanding budget performance reports. Every substantial loan should be traceable to specific projects, with transparent procurement, implementation timelines and independently verifiable results.
There must also be a fundamental shift in the country’s approach to financing development.
Nigeria cannot continue to rely on borrowing as a substitute for effective economic management. It must expand its productive base, strengthen non-oil revenue collection, eliminate leakages, reduce wasteful expenditure and create an environment in which businesses can thrive.
Public-private partnerships should be explored more aggressively for commercially viable infrastructure projects, allowing private investors to participate in financing roads, railways, electricity and other essential facilities under transparent arrangements.
Above all, borrowing must be tied to productivity. Loans should finance projects capable of expanding economic activity, generating employment, increasing exports and strengthening government revenue.
A loan that builds productive capacity can help repay itself. A loan that merely finances recurrent expenditure risks leaving behind nothing but an invoice for future taxpayers.
This is the distinction the Tinubu administration must urgently understand.
Nigeria does not merely have a debt problem. It has a revenue problem, an accountability problem and, above all, a problem of ensuring that borrowed money delivers measurable value.
The government must stop treating the ability to secure loans as evidence of economic progress. The real test of leadership is not how much money a country can borrow, but how effectively it can transform available resources into prosperity.
The country’s future cannot be built on an endless cycle of borrowing, repayment and fresh borrowing.
A nation cannot borrow its way out of poverty while failing to create the wealth needed to repay its debts.
The children of today should not grow into adults whose first national inheritance is a mountain of financial obligations accumulated before they could even speak. They deserve functioning schools, modern hospitals, reliable electricity, decent jobs and an economy that offers opportunity rather than perpetual hardship.
Nigeria must wake up before the debt burden becomes an even greater obstacle to national development.
The Federal Government must explain every major borrowing decision, account for every borrowed naira and demonstrate the returns on every significant investment.
Enough of borrowing without answers. Enough of financial obligations without visible results. Enough of asking generations yet unborn to pay for decisions they never made.
Nigeria must not become a country where the government borrows the future, the present generation pays the interest, and the next generation inherits the bill.
The warning signs are already here. The numbers are speaking. The consequences are unfolding.
The time to act is now, before a debt crisis becomes a development catastrophe.